Notes on the Kentucky Derby (G1) Program
April 30th, 2009By Jude T. Feld
1st Race) MOTHER RUTH ran well in her debut and should get a great trip, right behind the speed, under jockey Garrett Gomez. AWESOME GRANNIE sports a bullet gate work at Churchill and hails from the barn of top debut trainer Steve Asmussen. She is the filly to fear most.
2nd Race) RILEY TUCKER seems best around one turn. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert adds blinkers to his equipment today and the way he is working, it looks like the shades are helping him focus. HEAVENLY CHORUS, a $475,000 Keeneland weanling is talented and sharp. It would not be shocking to see him in the winners’ circle.
3rd Race) With a decent second-place finish going seven furlongs at Keeneland, EAGLE POISE looks ready to stretch out and win for Hall of Fame trainer Bobby Frankel. FIVE BOROUGHS showed excellent speed in his comeback effort and the son of Distorted Humor could be tough if left to his own devices on the front end.
4th Race) BROTHER KEITH, who has been running against many of today’s Derby entrants, finds a spot to showcase his talents after finishing third in a Keeneland allowance race. NORTHERN PRINCE has run second in three straight and is in line to do it again here. GLENWOOD CANYON finally put it all together last time out and could repeat.
5th Race) WHY TONTO has steadily improved his speed figures this year for trainer Todd Pletcher. He finished second, on a yielding course, in his only other Churchill grass race and looks like the horse to beat this afternoon. PICK SIX fits well here and will be saddled by red-hot Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey. DESERT WHEAT has forged a career in Louisiana-bred races but still has solid numbers in this classier field.
6th Race) KODIAK KOWBOY has never been worse than second at Churchill Downs. His two races this year have been dynamite and his :59 4/5 workout in Louisville on Monday indicates that he retains his sharpness. MY PAL CHARLIE comes off a good third in the Commonwealth (G2) at Keeneland. He gets the services of jockey Garrett Gomez this afternoon – a definite plus for this lazy runner. ACCREDIT looks like a timely claim by the Ramsey Stable. His speed figures certainly put him in the mix.
7th Race) LARAGH is a Grade 1 winner but she doesn’t like soft ground. She should win if the track is fast, but if it is off, look elsewhere. AUSPICIOUS has never run a bad race and should enjoy seven furlongs. She’ll be a good price too. LADY’S LAUGHTER has gotten better with racing and seems up to a race of this caliber now. JUST JENDA, from the J. Larry Jones barn, is a Grade 3 winner who has never lost around one turn.
8th Race) With two wins in three U.S. starts and solid turf figures, SUGAR MINT looks primed for another big race under jockey Rafael Bejarano. LEMON CHIFFON is super-sharp right now and cannot be ignored. BALLYMORE LADY likes the Churchill turf and draws hot-riding Julien Leparoux. RUSTIC FLAME has competitive numbers but will need her best effort to win.
9th Race) Three talented fillies dominate this race and any of them could win. GAME FACE is fast, consistent, likes Churchill Downs and runs well on any surface making her the top pick. INFORMED DECISION has won three in-a-row and could easily make it four if she doesn’t bounce off her impressive Vinery Madison (G1) victory at Keeneland. SECRET GYPSY is super-fast and could go wire-to-wire under jockey Robby Albarado.
10th Race) Defending champion EINSTEIN is one of the best racehorses in the world. He returns to his preferred surface this afternoon and will be tough to beat. ARTISTE ROYAL is eight-years-old but still has some mettle. He finished third to EINSTEIN last year in this event and could turn the tables with a good trip. PROUDINSKY comes off a big race at Fair Grounds and has a perfect running style for the Churchill turf.
11th Race) With at least half the field plausible winners, this is the best Kentucky Derby (G1) in decades. FRIESAN FIRE beat a very good field in the Louisiana Derby (G2). The son of leading sire A.P. Indy has been training super since that effort. He should be able to avoid traffic woes with his tactical speed, opening up on the field turning for home – often the winning Derby move. PIONEEROF THE NILE has been atop my Derby list since the beginning of the year. Trainer Bob Baffert knows how to win this race and mapped out the perfect schedule to get his charge to the winners’ circle. WEST SIDE BERNIE is capable of a tremendous stretch kick. He could run ‘em all down if the pace is too hot. HOLD ME BACK is a talented colt who has been trained thoughtfully for this race by Hall of Famer Billy Mott. Hall of Fame jockey Kent Desormeaux will use all his Derby-winning experience to find a winning path to the roses. DESERT PARTY gives the powerful Godolphin Stable their best-ever shot at a Derby but it is puzzling that stable jockey Frankie Dettori didn’t make the trip.
12th Race) LUSTER has never finished out of the money in four lifetime starts. She came up a tad short in her Keeneland comebacker but there should be no mistakes today.
13th Race) CULLINAN adds blinkers after two lackluster races. He seems better on turf and Desormeaux sticks with him. He could upset in a wide-open nightcap.
